“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” -Mike Tyson
While we are bullish in the short term, we remain cognizant of where we are in the cycle and are preparing ourselves for what a down market may bring. Having a plan in place beforehand helps control emotions and ultimately leads to better investment decisions. In this latest newsletter, we’ve taken a look back at this past quarter, some of the things that are causing the choppiness in the market: tariff talks and rising interest rates, and how we are preparing for a more volatile market environment.
Click here to read our 2nd Quarter 2018 Market Commentary
Successful investing is often determined by one’s ability to stay the course. Since 2009, investors have had every excuse to bail out of stocks, but the market has continued to climb a wall of worry, becoming one of the longest bull markets in history. In fact, since March of ’09, the S&P 500 is up 290%. By historic measures, this market has lasted 108 months vs 54 months for the average bull market. The question becomes: Where are we now? In our humble opinion, we are probably pretty deep into the 4th quarter and might go into overtime.
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“The world is a book and those who do not travel read only one page” – Saint Augustine
At Canal Capital, we echo the sentiment of Saint Augustine, not only in life but also in investing. Those investors that take a myopic approach and only invest in the US, are reading but only one page in the book of investment opportunities. Yes, the US Market has led the charge for the last 8 years and investors have been hurt by diversifying, but a shift is beginning to happen and it is our belief that those investors willing to read past the first page and go global, will be rewarded moving forward.
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Despite the lingering uncertainty and questions related to global policy: Legislative, Monetary (the Fed) and Foreign, the market has continued to grind higher, further strengthening the argument that despite the negative and uneasy sentiment, markets and global economies are actually quite healthy. For the first time in a while we are seeing global economies growing in sync (See Chart) and this backdrop has provided healthy returns for just about every stock market around the world in 2017.
Please Click Here to Read Our 3rd Quarter 2017 Market Commentary
The first half of the year delivered superior returns for the US Stock Market as measured by the S&P 500 (+9.3%), but as we entered into the doldrums of Summer, that torrid pace slowed down considerably. June was a relatively flat month and the first few weeks of July have looked similar. While a strong first half typically follows with a strong second half (See Chart), a summer pullback or continued consolidation would be healthy. That said, as we look to the chart once again, the trend is our friend and as we’ve learned throughout the years, you don’t fight it.
Click here to read our 2nd Quarter 2017 Market Commentary
It’s become a common theme in our newsletters where we like to remind investors (as well as ourselves sometimes) to take a step back from the headline news to examine where we really are in the current Bull Market cycle. While the news is constantly talking about a pending market top and subsequent drop, history shows us that we need to stay calm and, as the popular 80’s hit by Frankie Goes to Hollywood says, “Relax!”
Click here to read our full 1st Quarter 2017 Market Commentary